Lincoln and Gray Clash Over Housing and Taxes in Redrawn Valley District

Voters in California’s 13th Congressional District face a choice between two experienced politicians on Nov. 3, but they disagree on how to fix the cost of living. Democratic Rep. Adam Gray and Republican Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton, both identify affordability as the central issue. Their remedies, however, diverge sharply on taxes, energy policy, and the role of federal government.

The district’s status as a genuine toss-up stems from the 2024 election, when Gray defeated Republican Rep. John Duarte by 187 votes out of 210,921 ballots cast. State records from 2023 indicate that 42.3% of registered voters in the area identify as Democrats, while 28.5% identify as Republicans. This narrow registration gap reflects the tight partisan balance that defined the previous cycle.

Financial resources show a wider disparity than the registration numbers suggest. Federal Election Commission data from June 30 lists Gray’s total contributions and loans at $4.2 million. Lincoln’s corresponding figure stands at $2.2 million. The $2 million difference provides Gray with a substantial cushion for advertising and outreach in the final weeks of the campaign.

Lincoln brings a different set of credentials to the race. A former Marine, he served in the White House Military Office from 2001 to 2005, where his duties included protecting Marine One. He also worked as an executive pastor at LifeSong Ministries in Stockton until 2020. After losing a primary challenge to Rep. Josh Harder in 2024, Lincoln shifted his focus to District 13 following the redistricting mandated by Proposition 50.

The new district boundaries cover the core of the San Joaquin Valley’s agricultural region and extend south along Interstate 5 to the Coalinga area, bypassing Fresno. Lincoln holds the endorsement of President Donald Trump, who posted on Truth Social in December that he gives Lincoln his "Complete and Total Endorsement." Lincoln has since promoted this support on his campaign website and described himself as "honored and thankful" for the backing.

Lincoln’s campaign centers on restoring the American dream through homeownership. At a September rally, he pledged to lower the cost of gas, food, and utilities, create jobs, and expand healthcare access. He accused Gray of voting to raise taxes repeatedly. In a video produced for the National Republican Congressional Committee, Lincoln emphasized his military service and local experience, claiming he knows how to "grind, fight and win a tough election."

Gray, a native of Merced, positions himself as a moderate alternative. He serves as a whip for the Blue Dog Coalition and told the Sacramento Bee that voters want an "independent voice" rather than a strict party label. He criticized Trump’s deportation policies as "irresponsible, reckless, dangerous" while highlighting his efforts to reverse Medicaid cuts and limit presidential tariff powers without congressional approval.

The candidates trade blows over specific policy details. Gray points to soaring gasoline and diesel prices linked to the war with Iran as evidence of economic strain. Lincoln counters that Gray increased the gas tax by over 113% per gallon during his time in the California Legislature. Both candidates will compete for the same pool of agricultural and working-class voters in the weeks leading up to the election.