Despite 18-point GOP redraw, Texas 15th district polls show 5-point Democratic lead

Bobby Pulido leads by five or six points in the Texas 15th District, a margin that contradicts the district's recent redrawing. In 2025, the district was redesigned to give Republicans a notional 18-point majority. Current surveys taken since late summer indicate that the Democratic advantage has emerged despite this map change.

The shift appears driven by economic pressures in the Rio Grande Valley. Mario Guerrero, a Mexican-American businessman and leader of the South Texas Builders Association, voted for Donald Trump three times but plans to support a Democrat in November. He cited a local acquaintance whose crew of 35 daily workers had shrunk to four or six. Guerrero noted that voters were not told how far the administration would go in its enforcement actions.

Government figures obtained by the Deportation Data Project show that Texas accounted for roughly one-third of all Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests nationwide in July 2026. No other state holds a larger share. At La Lomita Catholic Chapel, a site located about 200 yards from the Rio Grande, Father Roy Snipes addressed a congregation of about 30 people. He described the policy as detaining and deporting neighbors, a sentiment that aligns with the local view on how the crackdown is carried out.

Trump secured around 55% of Hispanic votes in Texas during the 2024 presidential election, a record for a Republican candidate. That support relied on a pledge to end illegal crossings. Border crossings are now at their lowest level in decades, down from more than two and a half million apprehensions in a single year under the previous administration. However, recent polling indicates a majority of Hispanic voters in Texas now disapprove of the president and favor Democrats.

Javier Villalobos, the Republican mayor of McAllen, acknowledged the difficulty of the upcoming race. He said most residents accept deporting criminals but object to the removal of productive, law-abiding people. Pulido, a Tejano singer and two-time Latin Grammy winner, has focused his campaign on the local economy rather than the national party brand. He told voters, "This isn't New York, this isn't LA."

Republican campaigners recognize the challenge. Student volunteer Alexis Uscanga described the midterms as a game of turnout. Tano Tijerina, the Republican candidate for the neighboring 28th district, admitted that national political headwinds are real. If the polls are accurate, a swing back to Democrats could put a U.S. Senate seat in play, a race Democrats have not won in the state for more than 30 years.