Twelve seats decide Israeli government

Twelve seats. That is the low end of the range where Palestinian citizens of Israel currently hold the balance of power in next week's election. Most recent polls project that these voters will secure between 12 and 15 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This narrow band of representation may determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu retains his position or faces removal from office.

Current forecasts indicate that Netanyahu's far-right coalition will lose its majority. However, the Jewish Israeli opposition bloc also appears unable to clear the 61-seat threshold required to form a government. The 12 to 15 seats held by Palestinian parties, split between the Islamist Ra'am party and the Joint List, become the critical variable in the final tally. The Joint List includes Ta'al, led by long-serving Knesset member Ahmad Tibi.

Tibi stated that his party is committed to dismantling the current administration. He described high turnout among the Arab community as a primary tool for achieving that goal. The community represents approximately 20% of Israel's total population. Their voting patterns in towns like Kfar Qasim, where residents gathered for pastries and coffee to hear campaign pitches, will be closely watched by political analysts.

Political barriers remain high for any cross-ethnic alliance. Most of the Jewish opposition has ruled out partnering with Arab politicians, while Netanyahu and his allies have promoted slogans such as "Bibi or Tibi" to make such a coalition seem unappealing. Historically, Palestinian representation in cabinet has been rare. Raleb Majadele served as sports minister for two years, and Issawi Frej held the regional coordination portfolio for just over a year.

Precedent suggests that promises of exclusion often dissolve once vote counts are finalized. In 2021, Mansour Abbas brought Ra'am into a coalition with Naftali Bennett. Bennett is now part of the opposition bloc. Netanyahu himself previously initiated coalition talks with Abbas. One prospective voter, Mohammed, who manages mixed Jewish and Arab staff at a technology firm, expects the opposition to adjust its stance based on the numbers. He cited simple arithmetic as the deciding factor, urging friends of all backgrounds to cast ballots.

The decision is complicated for Palestinian leaders who must choose between two imperfect options. None of the opposition parties advocate for a two-state solution, and most oppose a Palestinian state while supporting the settlement movement in the West Bank. Tibi characterized the choice as selecting between Netanyahu, Bezalel Smotrich, and Itamar Ben-Gvir on one side, and the opposition on the other. He called the situation a choice between bad and worse.

Fear of returning far-right ministers is a primary driver for voters. Concerns stem from destruction in Gaza, violence in the West Bank, and rising discrimination inside Israel. Sami Abu Shehadeh, leader of the Balad party, identified fear as the biggest motivation. He noted that voters perceive a danger if the current leadership returns to power. This sentiment is amplified by the election's timing, which falls two days before Kfar Qasim marks the 1956 massacre in which border police killed 49 residents.

Trust in the electoral system remains fragile for many in the community. Last month, Israel's supreme court effectively removed Abu Shehadeh from the race based on an article about the 7 October attacks. Critics argued the ruling applied different free speech standards to Palestinian citizens compared to Jewish citizens. A motion to disqualify Itamar Ben-Gvir over racist language was not upheld. Some residents, including journalist Nagham Zbeedat, plan to abstain to avoid legitimizing a system that treats their rights as favors.

Amjed Iraqi of the International Crisis Group noted that a returning far-right coalition would have renewed mandate to accelerate annexation and ethnic cleansing policies. He described the vote as a measure of mitigation rather than a clear solution. Iraqi observed that Palestinians can distinguish between rightwing and far-right governance. He added that many voters feel powerless because there is no clarity about what follows the election.