Poll: Majority of Shi'ites want state to hold Hezbollah weapons

Statistics Lebanon surveyed 800 Shi'ites in September and found that 66.4% support handing Hezbollah's weapons to the Lebanese state. The poll results emerged in mid-October and were reported by Israel's KAN and the Lebanese website Kataeb.org. In the same survey, 29.6% of respondents said the group should keep its arsenal.

The data indicates a strong preference for state control over military decisions. Seventy-one percent of respondents said the state should have sole authority on war and peace. Only 5.9% believed Hezbollah's leadership should play a larger role in shaping the country's future. This stands in contrast to the group's long-held position that its weapons are essential for defending Lebanon against Israel.

Trust in the Lebanese Armed Forces remains high among the group's traditional base. Approximately 78.5% of respondents said they trust the army. Fifty-one percent named the military as the best institution to guarantee long-term security, while only 16.5% chose Hezbollah. These figures challenge the militia's traditional claim to represent the security interests of Lebanon's Shi'ite community.

Sentiment regarding the recent conflict was mixed. Sixty-seven percent of respondents said Hezbollah failed to meet its goals in the war with Israel or achieved only some of them. Forty-two percent expressed disappointment, anger, or concern about the group's leadership and the consequences of the conflict. Despite this, 59.5% still expressed some trust in the organization, with 37.1% reporting a great deal of trust.

Roi Kais of KAN noted that Hezbollah's support networks and status still sustain its strength. He argued the group remains powerful as long as no other entity fills the vacuum left by state institutions. This finding aligns with a June 10 analysis by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni at Israel's Institute for National Security Studies. They stated that the group's influence rests on social and economic networks, political power, and the historical marginalization of Shi'ites.

The September results differ sharply from data collected earlier in the year. A May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. In that earlier poll, only 7.9% supported giving up the group's weapons. More than 90% of respondents in the May survey also opposed ties with Israel. The gap in the numbers raises questions about whether differences in wording or agenda shaped the outcomes.

Hezbollah has announced financial aid for families affected by the war that began in March 2026. The group will provide up to $14,000 to eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed. Families elsewhere may receive up to $12,000. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly opposed opening a branch of the Hezbollah-linked financial institution Al-Qard Al-Hassan in their building due to fears of Israeli strikes.