Moscow Airports Ground for Up to Nine Hours Daily Amid Drone Threats

Moscow's four major airports lost up to nine hours of operating time on certain days in October, according to data from the independent investigative outlet Agentstvo. The closures affected Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Zhukovsky, and Vnukovo, which suspended operations on nearly every day of the month. This pattern represents a sharp escalation in the disruption caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, which have forced Russian airports to halt flights for several months.

The closures are triggered by a safety procedure known as the "carpet" protocol, administered by Rosaviatsiya, Russia's aviation authority. The protocol mandates an immediate closure of airspace over a region or around affected airports if an aircraft violates Russian airspace, weapons are used, or unidentified objects appear in the sky. Oleksandr Laneckij, chief executive of the consultancy Friendly Avia Support, explained that the protocol treats every drone as a military threat. He noted that the situation resembles the disruption caused by Yemen's Houthis in Saudi airspace, but with Ukraine possessing far greater military capabilities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy outlined this strategy in early September, stating that Ukraine would seek to cut off the airspace around Moscow and other Russian destinations. He addressed airlines, insurers, and travelers directly, declaring that "Russian airspace will become completely unsafe." The following day, Ukraine sent a matching warning to the International Civil Aviation Organization. Ukraine's own airspace has remained closed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

Military analyst Jan Matvejev stated that Ukraine faces little difficulty in severely disrupting air traffic around Moscow, even though it has not yet fully closed Russian airspace as intended. He argued that triggering the protocol requires only simple drones without warheads or long range. Ukraine's arms industry currently produces hundreds of combat-ready long-range drones daily. Simon Shuster, writing in The Atlantic in October, cited well-informed sources to suggest that these efforts are "just getting started."

Matvejev noted that Russian air defenses are not fully effective against the drones. He observed that if it were possible to shoot them down, they would have done so by now. He added that Russia would have deployed more air-defense troops if it had the resources. The lack of effectiveness has led experts to warn about risks to civilian flights. Laneckij said Russia might lower the threshold for declaring the carpet protocol, increasing the danger of deadly incidents. He referenced the 2024 Christmas day crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight, where investigators found the aircraft was hit by a Russian air-defense missile fired to counter drones, killing 38 people.

Matvejev said little has changed in Russia's air-defense protocol since the Azerbaijan Airlines crash. He distinguished between low-flying drones identified visually and shot with machine guns, which pose an extremely low risk to aircraft, and missiles. He warned that defects in mass-produced missiles could send one toward a nearby airliner. Matvejev also added that drones do not need explosives to cause harm, as a collision with an airplane can be serious. He noted that a drone flown from Ukraine to Moscow must be fairly large, weighing dozens of kilograms.

The impact is not limited to Moscow. Ukrainian forces attacked Pskov airport in the summer of 2023, and drone debris fell on Sochi airport earlier this month. In September, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's airport and Boryspil, near the capital, were hit by Russian strikes. The financial implications for foreign airlines depend on three factors: the military threat, demand, and insurance costs. If insurers rate the risk as very high, they could sharply raise premiums, sending ticket prices soaring.

Competition in Russia's aviation market has already shrunk because many airlines have gone out of business. This reduction in competition has pushed up demand for seats on the remaining foreign carriers. Laneckij said whether foreign airlines stay or go depends on the price they have to pay for the danger faced. He stated that if insurers view the risk as very high, the resulting premium increases would directly affect the bottom line of operating carriers.