Flavio Bolsonaro Holds 1.3 Point Edge Over Lula in Final Brazil Poll

A CNT/MDA poll released Saturday places Flavio Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva at 45 percent in the final days of Brazil's presidential campaign. The 1.3 percentage point gap falls within the survey's 2.2 percentage point margin of error, indicating a statistical tie. This result follows a previous CNT/MDA poll from one week earlier that showed Bolsonaro leading by a wider 0.9 point margin.

The two candidates held their final public appearances on Saturday in separate regions of the country. Lula, the 80-year-old incumbent seeking a fourth non-consecutive term, addressed a crowd at Copacabana Beach in Rio de Janeiro. Standing on a campaign truck, he waved a Brazilian flag and criticized his rival for his close relationship with US President Donald Trump. Lula told supporters that voters must choose between a leader who respects the national flag and one who prioritizes the American flag.

Bolsonaro, a senator and the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, campaigned in the southeastern state of Minas Gerais. His supporters included hundreds of motorcyclists wearing yellow national football jerseys. Ebert Dorigo, one of the motorcycle riders, told AFP that Lula's Workers' Party had fostered a reliance on government welfare. Dorigo argued that the country requires a new direction focused on nation and family, stating that some citizens fail to realize that improvement comes only through hard work.

The runoff election on Sunday will determine whether Lula remains in office or if Brazil shifts further to the right. The first round of voting saw Bolsonaro capture 47 percent of the vote, narrowly surpassing Lula's 45 percent. The campaign has focused heavily on economic policy, crime, and the political legacy of Bolsonaro's father, who is currently serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup after losing the 2022 election. Bolsonaro has pledged to add hundreds of thousands of prison beds and reduce government spending.

The candidates engaged in a final debate on Friday, adopting a calmer tone than previous encounters while still trading accusations regarding economic management. Gabriela Ribeiro Viana, an event organizer, described the voting decision as difficult. She told AFP that the current ballot forces a choice between two unfavorable options, noting that voters are stuck selecting between the worst and the lesser evil.