Malls and app drivers reshape Brazil's vote as factories vanish

Osasco, a suburb of São Paulo once known as a manufacturing hub, has become a testing ground for Brazil’s changing labor force. The city, which supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022, shifted its support to Flávio Bolsonaro in the first round of this month’s presidential election. This local change mirrors a nationwide trend where industrial jobs are being replaced by service sector work, influencing the runoff vote scheduled for Sunday.

Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers’ union leader in Osasco, describes the disappearance of metal, chemical, and textile factories. He notes that five shopping malls have been built in their place. Almazan argues that the traditional union movement is outdated, calling it stuck in the Middle Ages. He says many workers now prefer the flexibility of gig economy jobs, such as driving for apps or selling food, over the collective action and welfare systems associated with Lula.

Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, explains that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making the economic shift feel sharper. He calls Lula a victim of his own success, noting that while unemployment has hit a record low and Brazil left the UN’s Hunger Map, voters still feel squeezed by high prices, debt, and interest rates. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who previously supported Lula, blames the government’s mismanagement for the heavy tax burden. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro, saying nothing has changed since Lula returned to power.

The first round saw 33 million people abstain from voting, the highest number since 1998. Flávio Bolsonaro has proposed cutting government spending and ministries while keeping some of Lula’s welfare programs. He denies recent corruption accusations. Lula’s campaign is responding with large street rallies, claiming one in São Paulo drew about a million people. Lula, 80, has used social media to counter claims about his age, referring to himself as the king of selfies.

Among the poorest voters, Lula’s record still holds weight. In Maré, a large favela in Rio de Janeiro, Lula won despite above-average abstention. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 pounds a month, supports Lula for raising the minimum wage and providing free medicines. She fears Bolsonaro’s plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing police raids in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Andreza Dionísio, a resident of Maré, blames last-minute polling station changes and a sense of hopelessness for the low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are increasingly involved in the election. They provide childcare, employment advice, and food to their congregations. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is under investigation for allegedly obstructing the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church’s values on family and opposition to abortion. Malafaia calls the investigation politically motivated. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula, as the working class continues to move away from industrial roots.

The runoff will determine whether Lula can retain the presidency or if Flávio Bolsonaro will capitalize on the economic shift. Every first-round winner since 1989 has gone on to become president. The outcome hinges on whether voters in cities like Osasco and communities like Maré decide to back a new story or stick with the incumbent’s welfare record.